How Wrong Will We Be? Forecasting the Upcoming Blockbuster Releases

Bruno Mars

Harry Styles

BTS

Ye

The Grammys have been handed out and Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has danced its way into history, clearing the way for a host of superstar album releases over the next two months. Below, HITS rounds up the big Q1 and Q2 LPs the biz is buzzing about and guesstimates their debut-week sales after multiple consultations with our in-house numerologist.

Please, no wagering.

Feb. 27

Bruno Mars, The Romantic (Atlantic)

The world sure missed Mars, whose first album in a decade is led by the soul-pop smash “I Just Might.” The cut knocked Taylor Swift out of pole position on the Hot 100 and was performed on the Grammys, propelling it to 136m Spotify streams in four weeks. How will The Romantic measure up to 2016’s 24k Magic, which moved 231k in its first week? In light of Mars’ breaking the Ticketmaster single-day record with 2.1m tickets sold for his upcoming Romantic tour, those numbers could very well creep up(town).

HITS guesstimate: 200k+

March 6

Harry Styles, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally. (Columbia)

Although the five-minute lead single “Aperture” topped DSP charts and is making noise at Pop radio, it hasn’t quite resulted in Harry’s House levels of mania for the Full Stop star, but putting up 30 shows at Madison Square Garden qualifies as mega. As with Harry’s House, which sold an eye-popping record 182k vinyl copies in its first frame in 2022, the new album will shift mondo wax during street week. Can Styles disco his way to topping the 4.1m in U.S. activity for Harry’s House? That sure would make things beautiful.

HITS guesstimate: 500-600k+

March 20

BTS, ARIRANG (BIGHIT MUSIC/HYBE via Interscope)

Like Styles and Mars, BTS has been out of the spotlight for an extended period of time, but the K-pop megastars have a pretty legit excuse: They were completing mandatory military service in their home country. With little more than a month and change left before the arrival of ARIRANG, BTS has yet to release a lead single, making it challenging to read the first-week tea leaves. For reference, the septet’s last full-length, 2020’s Be, moved 242k in its first seven days. Their ARIRANG tour will span 34 regions and 82 shows across Asia, North America, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. See for yourself when Netflix streams BTS' release day show from Seoul.

HITS guesstimate: 500-750k+

Kanye West, Bully (gamma.)

For decades, West was mercurial at best, a raging narcissist at worst, a GOAT rapper-producer all the while. Then came a span of years where he donned MAGA hats, blamed Blacks for slavery and regularly spewed horrific antisemitic remarks, brought on, he contends, by the lingering effects of a brain injury. After issuing a full-page apologia in the Wall Street Journal and signing to Larry Jackson’s gamma., West is releasing Bully, which is said to explore “remorse, memory, ego, faith and consequence.” That sounds fun. While audiences have every reason to question his sincerity, there’s no doubt he remains one of the century’s defining artists. This is West’s first album since 2022’s Donda 2, which was released via the remix device Stem Player, then in an edited form last year on his YZY.

HITS guesstimate: 250-275k

Luke Combs, The Way I Am (Sony Music Nashville)

2024’s Fathers & Sons, which was Combs’ fifth Top 10 album in eight years, shifted 60k copies in its first frame. Its follow-up includes the single “Sleepless in a Hotel Room” (30m Spotify plays in its first month) and 21 other cuts produced by Combs and his Fathers & Sons collaborators Jonathan Singleton and Chip Matthews. Combs’ AEG Presents My Kinda Saturday Night stadium tour begins in Las Vegas the day after release.

HITS guesstimate: 45-55k

Luke Combs

RAYE

Ella Langley

Noah Kahan

March 27

RAYE, THIS MUSIC MAY CONTAIN HOPE (Human Re Sources/The Orchard)

The U.K. powerhouse has been a Spotify global Top 10 mainstay with “WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!,” which is zooming toward a half-billion streams. The song has also finally conquered U.S. radio, where it went #1 at Rhythm earlier this month. Look for RAYE opening for Mars on his Romantic tour later this year.

HITS guesstimate: 70-100k

April 10

Ella Langley, Dandelion (SAWGOD/Columbia)

The country upstart is enjoying a career-best stretch with the single “Choosin’ Texas,” which just went to #1 on the Hot 100 after dominating the upper reaches of Spotify and Apple Music. Langley’s sophomore effort is executive-produced by the artist with Miranda Lambert and songwriter-producer Ben West (Carly Pearce, Parker McCollum, Stephen Wilson Jr.). She’ll start her first headlining arena tour May 7 in Toledo, Ohio.

HITS guesstimate: 70-100k+

April 24

Noah Kahan, The Great Divide (Mercury)

The Vermont troubadour has found another winning combo with longtime collaborator Gabe Simon and new contributor Aaron Dessner of The National on the follow-up to 2022’s five-million-selling Stick Season. The new album’s title track immediately shot to #1 at Spotify U.S., while the subsequent Mastercard-backed video received a major look during the Grammy telecast. Kahan’s live business is exploding in corresponding fashion; he added multiple second stadium shows in North American markets after near-instant sellouts this week.

HITS guesstimate: 200-225k