Near Truths

STARS AND BARS, CONTINUED: All signs indicate that the dominance of female pop stars on the DSP charts over the past year or so has peaked, momentarily, and that we have entered a new era of hip-hop ascendance led by Kendrick Lamar, Playboi Carti, Drake, Doechii and Lil Tecca. Cuts by these artists represent seven of the Top 10 entries on Spotify’s U.S. chart and six of the Top 10 at Apple Music. The Kendrick/SZA giant “luther” and Doechii’s monster “Anxiety” (the latter now playing in March Madness bumpers ahead of a Final Four live appearance by the Grammy-winning phenom) also hold court, notably, on the Spot’s global Top 10.

Drake’s collaborative set with PARTYNEXTDOOR has obviously helped him during a difficult time, with one track, “Nokia,” faring especially well. Meanwhile, his lawsuit against his label continues—will the latter ultimately cut bait and end the relationship, as it did with Frank Ocean and Kanye West? After all, who wants to be in a business relationship with a disgruntled artist? Will this conflict be settled out of court, as the Ocean and Ye disputes were, with the parties cutting a deal everyone can live with and going their separate ways? At a company of UMG’s size and scale, no single artist has sufficient leverage to wag the proverbial dog.

Attorney Theo Sedlmayr is running point on Drake’s litigation, but erstwhile Drake advisor and dealmaker Paul Wachter (who was recently in the news amid the leadership change at UTA, where he presides as chairman) is said to be sitting this one out. Wachter, you’ll recall, has a heavyweight client list that includes LeBron James, Bono, Jimmy Iovine, Dr. Dre, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Boston Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner.

Is Alamo boss Todd Moscowitz, who distributes Drake’s OVO label via his Santa Anna JV with Sony, positioned to help pick up the pieces, especially as he, too, is repped by Sedlmayr? Perhaps, but for now Mosco is likely much more focused on his brand-new Lil Durk record, which arrives on 3/28. Will it join the aforementioned giants in rap’s new run?

PROBLEM SOLVERS: One exception to the hip-hop trend: Morgan Wallen, who is making inroads with two cuts from his forthcoming album (more successfully at Apple than at Spotify, so far). We expect considerably more disruption from the country superstar, who has thus far been unable to break rap’s renewed grip on the streaming leaderboards, when his 37-track I’m the Problem lands on 5/16. Will the album—the rollout of which includes day-and-date three-LP vinyl sets priced to move at $30—score a first-week total in the neighborhood of 500k?

HYPE HOUSES: Apart from singles by Benson Boone and Teddy Swims, it’s been a rare thing for a male artist outside rap or country to seize the moment. But that is surely happening with the arrival of Atlantic’s Alex Warren. The singer-songwriter’s “Ordinary” is a streaming rocket (it’s now Top 10 on Spotify’s global and U.S. charts). The song is also on its way to a second week at #1 in the U.K.

The California-bred troubadour, podcaster and comedian knows a thing or two about virality, having built a huge following on TikTok, YouTube and Instagram (he co-founded and occupied the infamous influencer incubator the Hype House and appeared on the Netflix show about it). His songs, posts and other content about his romance with and subsequent marriage to fellow IG luminary Kouvr Annon were already bubbling in the social-media bloodstream when “Ordinary” exploded (Annon co-stars in the song’s video with Warren). It’s one of those love songs that, once it strikes a chord in pop culture, just keeps resonating (think Lewis Capaldi). "Ordinary" could well be one of the year’s true biggies.

Also returning to (possibly) change the gender dynamics at the top of the pop world is Ed Sheeran, who will be delivering a new song sometime soon and a new album, well, sometime. Can Sheeran bust through a crowded (and rap-heavy) field to become a big streaming act again? His last few outings haven’t really been commensurate with his massive stature as a live act—his touring business is simply unstoppable.

Back on the diva front, new music is on the way from Miley Cyrus, with an album set to drop on 5/30. Her last one included a little ditty called “Flowers” that you might remember.

In any case, the post-Grammy halo abides for the women who’ve been reigning o'er the landscape—notably Sabrina, Chappell, Gaga, Charli, Tate and Doechii, all of whom have continued to occupy serious chart real estate—in some cases with new music. Music’s Biggest Night was but one of several landmarks on the skillfully paved road to Interscope megastar Gaga’s album release. The multimedia marvel’s team includes her fiancé, Michael Polansky, a Harvard-educated tech entrepreneur and philanthropist whose work on behalf of his betrothed, we’re told, has involved a granular attention to logistics. Speaking of which, Gaga’s Friday-night headlining spot at Coachella should showcase yet more facets of her ever-intriguing pop persona. Ticket sales for the opening weekend alone will be north of 100k.

DESERT ROSES: Wonderers wonder who among the desert fest’s other featured acts might steal the show. Could lightning strike again for Charli? Will BLACKPINK members LISA and JENNIE take their careers to the next level? Benson Boone is a potent live act—will he level up and finally get bigger than his own big hit? Could Ivan Cornejo connect with a substantial crossover audience? What might the new commercial energy in the hip-hop genre portend for Megan Thee Stallion or GloRilla? Will Mustard’s association with Kendrick take him to a new plateau? How will Travis Scott’s ambitious Saturday program play? When we say the world is watching, that isn’t hyperbole—the Coachella video stream has become a giant global event, and its impact on the marketplace (and on the developing brands of the artists) is unlike anything we’ve seen since the halcyon days of MTV, and a breakout performance nowadays generates much more than just word of mouth.

Regarding Travis Scott—and the globe—the rap superstar will mount the next phase of his Circus Maximus extravaganza, rocking stadiums in Johannesburg, Delhi, Seoul, Tokyo and various locations in China. This leg’s fascinating, far-flung itinerary looks in some respects like a primer for the next chapter of the biz. The rapper is booked internationally by James Rubin at Wasserman and in the U.S. by Cara Lewis for the Cara Lewis Group. Live Nation is promoting every date except the China stops.

REALITY SHOW: Ticket prices have escalated and the incredibly volatile economic climate has caused fans to become a bit more conservative in their spending. Tariffs or no tariffs? Recession or no recession? Market crash or no? All this chaos may be blunting some of the live market’s momentum, though things remain robust overall at present.