A PREMATURE EVALUATION OF THE 2026 GRAMMYS BNA FIELD

Although we're still four months away from the end of the eligibility period (8/30) for the 68th Grammy Awards, the potential contenders for Best New Artist are beginning to come into sharper focus. Because we're HITS, we're sure to botch these predictions, but we've never let that stop us before.

Let's do this.

THE MARÍAS (Nice Life/Atlantic): The band's recent star turn at Coachella capped a sizzling run, with multiple songs on the DSPs, led by "No One Noticed." Singer María Zardoya is bound for the A-list.

ALEX WARREN (Atlantic): Another coup for Elliot Grainge's new Atlantic regime, former influencer Warren has a multiformat smash with the devotional "Ordinary," which could easily garner SOTY and/or ROTY nominations.

LOLA YOUNG (Island): The British singer has charisma to spare, and her chart-topper, "Messy," is a perfect calling card.

JESSIE MURPH (Columbia): One of the more intriguing artists to come down the pike in a minute, Murph seems equally comfortable singing brash country as she does brash trap, sometimes in the very same song. A hit duet with Koe Wetzel and her own "Blue Strips" could earn support from various voting blocs.

LEON THOMAS (EZMNY/Motown/Capitol): First, a caveat: Thomas won a Grammy in 2024 for co-writing SZA's "Snooze," so he may not be eligible. But the Recording Academy has been known to bend or revise the rules when it comes to BNA, and in addition to his current hit, "Mutt," Thomas spent years as a hit songwriter, an attribute that's usually catnip to the committees.

ADDISON RAE (Columbia): Rae, already a star in some circles (see her 2024 Rolling Stone cover), will release her debut album on 5/6.

sombr (SMB/Warner): 19-year-old alt-dude sombr is the only act among his BNA-contending peers to have two songs currently in the Top 20 on the Spotify U.S. chart: "back to friends" at #5 and "undressed" at #17.

BIGXTHAPLUG (United Masters): BigX has two albums under his sizable belt, including October's Top 10 Take Care, but it's his smash crossover duet with Bailey Zimmerman, "All the Way," that could put him over the top.

ELLA LANGLEY (SAWGOOD/Columbia): The Grammys tend to be meh on Nashville country in the big four categories, but Langley could be the anointed one, what with her field-leading eight ACM nominations and hit duet with Riley Green. Speaking of whom...

RILEY GREEN (Nashville Harbor/BMLG): In addition to his featured role with Langley on the #1 Country smash "You Look Like You Love Me," Green's own "Worst Way" is a sultry hit on its own.

JENNIE (Odd Atelier/Columbia); ROSÉ (The Black Label/Atlantic); LISA (Lloud/RCA): While Grammy tends to sniff at K-pop, the obvious star and streaming power of these three BLACKPINK members should be impossible to ignore. However, parsing which of the them might get nominated is beyond our measly pay grade.

RED CLAY STRAYS (Thirty Tigers/RCA): On any given night, the Strays are right up there with America's best bands. Their 2025 live EP may just be a harbinger of more blazing country-rock to come this year.

LIL TECCA (REPUBLIC): "Dark Thoughts" is still holding strong on the DSPs' Top 10, and though he's had chart success before, the Best New Artist category is as mutable as Trump's tariffs.

SLEEP TOKEN (RCA): If you think country fares poorly at the Grammys, check this: The last "metal" bands to get BNA noms were Linkin Park in 2002 and Papa Roach in 2001, and both are plausibly as alternative as they are metal (prior to those, you have to time-travel back to 1970 and a nom for Led Zeppelin). But the masked Sleep Token is an outlier in many respects, and wouldn't you love to see band leader Vessel walk the red carpet?

KEN CARSON (Opium/Interscope): Buoyed by the imprimatur of Playboi Carti, a #1 album and an upcoming arena tour, Carson could be hip-hop's next breakout star.

RAVYN LENAE (Atlantic): While Lenae released her first record in 2015, the Grammys do prize a slow climb to success, a feat made possible via this year's punky R&B breakthrough "Love Me Not."

GIGI PEREZ (Island): "Sailor Song" is a ginormous hit, nearing 1b Spotify streams. Perez's debut album, At the Beach, in Every Life, was released on 4/25.

MYLES SMITH (RCA): The British singer-songwriter is still without a proper LP, but his three BRIT Award nominations and multiple streaming hits, most notably "Stargazing," could be enough to give him the RAYE slot this year.

D4VD (Darkroom/Interscope): It may have come out over a year ago (in March 2024), but "Feel It" is surging on the DSPs, and Justin Lubliner's Darkroom (Billie Eilish) knows its way around the Grammy backrooms. New album WITHERED should continue the momentum.

TUCKER WETMORE (Back Blocks Music/EMI Nashville/Mercury): With his debut album, What Not To, just out and some table-setting hit singles in the run-up, Nashville is all in on Wetmore.