SHOCK OF THE NEW: 2025 HALF-YEAR MARKET SHARE

Without question, the first half of 2025 belongs to Big Loud/Mercury/Republic’s Morgan Wallen. Not only does I’m the Problem lead the pack in U.S. activity YTD, its two predecessors are Top 15, bringing his combined total activity since Jan. 1 north of 3.2m. pgLang/Interscope’s Kendrick Lamar—whose GNX is #2 with nearly 1.6m—dominated the first part of the year, along with Rimas’ Bad Bunny, but the country giant will likely rule the second half.

Morgan and Kendrick have helped their respective parent labels continue their dominance, though John Janick’s Interscope Capitol has leapfrogged the Lipman brothers’ REPUBLIC Collective to take the lead in both overall (16.4%) and current (16.1) market share. That shift is partly attributable to Taylor Swift being off-cycle—but she’s nonetheless made headlines by buying back the masters of her first six albums, which have notched 670k in U.S. activity so far this year while generating more than 800m streams.

The Lipmans boast a prodigious lineup that has racked up no fewer than 17 of the Top 50 albums and also includes XO’s The Weeknd, Island’s Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan, Mercury’s Noah Kahan and Post Malone, Ariana Grande and Broken Bow’s Jelly Roll. Interscope’s top-dog status, meanwhile, is primarily the result of the star power of Kendrick and interstellar label mates Lady Gaga, AWGE’s Playboi Carti and Darkroom’s Billie Eilish, whose latest albums are nestled together at 9, 10 and 11 at this juncture, with breakout newcomers Gracie Abrams at #17, QC/Motown’s Lil Baby at #19 and TDE/Capitol sensation Doechii at #23.

The two superpowers continue to be the primary contributors to the
dynastic dominance of UMG (38.6 overall, 36.1 current) under the redoubtable Sir Lucian Grainge. Uni notably has the #1 label in both overall and current country share—Mike Harris-led MCA and REPUBLIC Collective, respectively—while Jesús López’s UMLE is #2 in overall Latin share. Beyond all that, the knight now has a source of personal pride to add to his happiness list.

As his dad has looked on, next-gen label head Elliot Grainge (who’s just 31) has rapidly restored the luster to the storied company that Ahmet Ertegun and Jerry Wexler built in the 1960s. Atlantic and Warner haven’t simultaneously been lighting the scoreboard since the glory days of Mo and Ahmet back in the previous millennium. Warner is third in current share with 6.2 and fourth overall with 6.9, while Atlantic—powered by hits from breaking acts Alex Warren, The Marías and Ravyn Lenae as well as superstars Charli xcx, Bruno Mars and Coldplay—is #3 overall (7.8) and #4 current (5.7). Aaron Bay-Schuck and Tom Corson’s Warner has broken 19-year-old phenom sombr, who joins the recently re-upped Zach Bryan, Benson Boone (whose “Mystical Magical” has entered the Top 20), and Teddy Swims on the Bunny’s ever-growing hit parade.

WMG presently holds five of the Top 10 slots on Spotify’s Global 50: Alex Warren’s #1 “Ordinary,” sombr at #2 and 9, Warner Music Latina’s W Sound, Beéle, Ovy on the Drums at #7, Ravyn Lenae at #8 and the ROSÉ-Bruno collab “APT.” at #10.

Credit to play-caller Robert Kyncl, with a big thumbs up to board member and CEO whisperer Val Blavatnik, who played a key role in Elliot’s appointment and is proving to be wise beyond his 27 years.

Putting things in perspective, keep in mind that Interscope and Republic’s shares are by themselves greater than the combined share of Warner (which includes Cris Lacy and Gregg Nadel’s Warner Nashville) and Atlantic.

Rob Stringer’s Sony Music, which enjoyed a 14% boost in YOY revenue in fiscal 2024, has been paced by SZA (TDE), Tate McRae, LISA, Doja Cat and Sleep Token from Peter Edge’s RCA; Tyler, the Creator, Jessie Murph, JENNIE and Ella Langley from Ron Perry’s Columbia; Travis Scott and the emerging Mariah the Scientist from Sylvia’ Rhone’s Epic; Luke Combs and Kane Brown from Taylor Lindsey’s Sony Nashville; Rod Wave from Todd Moscowitz's Alamo; and Rauw Alejandro from Afo Verde’s Sony Latin, which leads the genre in overall share. Concurrently, the growing clout of indie-distro hub The Orchard—the launch pad for Bad Bunny and other surging Latin acts—reflects the growing influence in the distro-embracing new marketplace and solidifies the #2 major music group’s 27%+ standing in both market-share metrics.

On top of the game-changing growth of the distribution sector, with players including WMG’s ADA and UMG’s Virgin Music Group, traditional labels are themselves becoming quasi-distributors. In this regard, it’s worth noting that most superstar artist deals are really distribution deals.

That’s not all, folks, in terms of change. As I.B. Bad recently noted, Atlantic’s ability to mobilize key influencers appears to be a crucial ingredient in its renaissance, which harks back to the days when radio drove the market. But that was another era. What we’re now witnessing is the beginning of a whole new ballgame. Batter up.