Grammy Odds: What the Predictors Are Predicting

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With Grammy nominations less than 48 hours away, let’s see what predictors are predicting for Album of the Year nominations.

According to Kalshi, the Olivias (Rodrigo and Dean) are locks to score AOTY nods: you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love (Interscope) is trading at 97%, and The Art of Loving (Island) is right behind at 96%.

Then it’s four-time AOTY winner Taylor Swift at 90% with The Life of a Showgirl (Republic), closely followed by ROSALÍA’s newly crowned Latin Grammy AOTY winner LUX (Columbia) at 89%.

For the remaining four slots, traders are favoring RAYE’s THIS MUSIC MAY CONTAIN HOPE. (Human Re Sources) and Bruno Mars’ The Romantic (Atlantic) to earn noms, at 79% and 73%. After that, it’s a near toss-up as to who will land the final two noms, though Ella Langley’s Dandelion (SAWGOD/Columbia) and Phoebe Bridgers’ Lost Weekend (Dead Oceans) have the edge at 62% and 59%.

That would put Noah Kahan’s The Great Divide (Mercury), at 50%, on the outside looking in, if Kalshi traders are correct. Madonna’s CONFESSIONS II (Warner) is next with a 42% chance to land a nom, followed by Don Toliver, Harry Styles, Tame Impala and Paul McCartney.

Over at Gold Derby, the Olivias are at the top of the list. But they favor Kahan and Madonna to score a nod, with Langley and Bridgers falling short.

Are the Grammys gonna Grammy? Stay tuned.