ON THE LAUNCHPAD

What we know on the eve of the unveiling of Apple Music is that it will include a premium audio/video streaming service and a social-networking component code-named Apple Connect on which content from myriad sources will be delivered to enhance the discovery process. The service will function alongside a revamped—and still free—iTunes Radio that will boast curated playlists. But the overarching aspect of the entire rollout will be the consumer—Apple’s entire culture is predicated on what the consumer wants. The company’s experts have reportedly drilled down deep to make the new service as consumer-friendly—and consumer-driven—as possible.

As for next week’s announcement, Jimmy Iovine and his cohorts—including Trent Reznor, who’s said to have played a huge role on the creative side of the undertaking—have learned from the mistakes made by Jay Z in his disastrous Tidal launch, and there will not be another cavalcade of superstars paraded on stage on June 8, although there will be a heavy industry turnout, but certain high-profile artists will be visible and involved in the service. New artists have been driving the majority of recorded-music sales for several years, and both iTunes and Beats by Dre have advanced the perception of cool by hooking up with the right new acts at the right time. Look for the team to maintain the cool factor and continue to pick new acts to anoint.

After the launch, slated for late June, with Apple expected to offer a 90-day free trial period for the service, the big tell will be when the switch is thrown and we watch the percentage of conversions from free to paid. Only then will the dominoes begin to fall, and only then will the future of the music business begin to come into sharper focus.

Apple is expected to throw its entire marketing muscle behind music with the aim of wrapping its arms even more tightly around pop culture. After all, iTunes and the iPod were key factors in the company's reinvention.

At this point, there are far more questions than answers in terms of Apple Music’s potential impact, and a successful launch could have implications far beyond the streaming sector itself. If the Apple service is widely adopted, will it change the discovery process for consumers? How does radio compete, given the fact that it is already in grave danger of losing the younger generation altogether? Could the combination of on-demand streaming and Internet radio ultimately become the new radio?

There’s little doubt that Apple Music will hasten the globalization of the music business. Even today, a hot Spotify playlist out of, say, Australia, can get worldwide traction. The labels are aware of this growing trend and are making a concerted effort to engage the most popular playlist creators—or curators, to adopt the current parlance—in an effort to get their music included. Given the rapid growth of this pop-cultural DIY phenomenon, are playlists on course to become the new gatekeepers? If so, recent Apple arrival Zane Lowe is ideally positioned to become one of the top playlist curators on the planet, as are Pharrell, Drake and possibly Reznor.

Apple is expected to throw its entire marketing muscle behind music with the aim of wrapping its arms even more tightly around pop culture. After all, iTunes and the iPod were key factors in the company's reinvention. But there are still loose ends to be tied up. Will the splits on streaming move to the 70/30 formula, or will it be 50/50? That’s among the issues being negotiated as talks between Apple and the majors drag on. And despite Apple’s ability to pay big money for exclusives, there are still major hurdles to be cleared given that this content is for the most part owned not by the artists but by the labels. These factors have caused Apple to dial back the intensity of its attempts to get these exclusives, lowering the stress level within the artist-label-Apple triangle.

RIVALS

How will the Apple Music launch impact negotiations between Spotify and the majors? Will the appearance of this powerful new rival give rights holders greater leverage in their talks? On the same subject, many believe Spotify was the source of the leak of Sony’s contract with the service. Lending credence to the rumor is the fact that the story first broke on The Verge, which is widely viewed as Spotify’s bully pulpit.

Exacerbating the Tidal situation is the service’s inability to pay the agreed-upon licensing fees to the majors. It appears that Jay Z launched Tidal under the misconception that Sprint or its parent company SoftBank would invest in the service, providing him with the tens of millions needed to cover the initial fees. Whether this was a misunderstanding or wishful thinking on Jay’s part, there was no deal in place, and he had no way to honor those commitments. Sony’s decision not to pull its music from Tidal despite not having been paid is now viewed as an act of mercy, but don’t expect it to go on indefinitely. How many millions will Jay lose if he can’t climb out of the hole he’s dug himself into?

NAMES IN THE RUMOR MILL: Michael Robertson, Shawn Fanning, Jimmy and Doug’s Farm Club, MySpace, Steve Jobs, Daniel Ek and SoundCloud.