This has been an outstanding year for major releases, and that's likely to be reflected in the top-tier Grammy noms. I say “likely” rather than “certainly” because nobody knows what the Academy cabal will do or what mysterious agendas will be at work in the byzantine subterranean chambers where artists and records are anointed. That is to say: Grammys gonna Grammy, y’all.

Album of the Year is a particularly compelling conversation this year given the three heavyweights who are likely to be locks for noms: Beyoncé, Taylor and Billie. But of those three, who might have the edge?

That Bey, who has schlepped home 32 golden gramophones and earned an incredible 88 noms over the course of her career, has never won AOTY is mind-boggling. Her albums, always meticulously crafted and inventive, are also often cultural events. This is certainly the case with COWBOY CARTER (Parkwood/Columbia), a Texas-fried manifesto about genre and identity that lassoed the zeitgeist. The album boasted a bona fide smash in “Texas Hold 'Em” and participation by legends like Willie Nelson, Dolly Parton and Black country trailblazer Linda Martell. In addition to righting a longstanding wrong by rewarding Bey in this category, an AOTY win for her would enable Grammy to simultaneously acknowledge country’s huge profile on the current landscape and further subvert the shallow notion that it’s a “white” form.

Then again, if Album of the Year should go to the biggest album of the year—not exactly a radical notion—it's undeniable that Taylor Swift’s THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT (Republic)—owns that distinction. The chart-ruling set’s staggering reign in the marketplace (it’s approaching 5m in U.S. ATD) is but one prong of Tay’s pop-cultural dominance, which recalls The Beatles in fan adulation and multimedia saturation. It’s also been available in an array of retail variations rivaling the output of the Marvel cinematic universe. As ever, the set is a showcase for Tay’s deft and literate songwriting. It is both a puzzle and a shandeh that she's never won Song of the Year. In any case, Grammy desperately wants Tay, who took home AOTY last time, on the telecast—what moves might be necessary to make that happen?

Then there’s Billie, who scored SOTY last time for her world-rocking Barbie ballad. With HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, the Darkroom/Interscope star and Grammy darling reached a new creative plateau and addressed her sexuality with fearless, ferocious openness. Her musical collaboration with brother FINNEAS reached new peaks of exploration and feeling, and she's never sounded more assured as a vocalist. Cuts like the erotically ravenous “Lunch,” the soaring “Birds of a Feather” and powerhouse “The Greatest” rank among her most confident, affecting creations yet. In most other years, HIT ME would be the title to beat in this category. But this time, Billie’s caught in a clash of titans.

Of course Grammy could split the difference by giving the trophy to a jazz record only 11 people have heard. Because Grammys gonna Grammy.

In any case, we look forward to Harvey arriving for his speech on horseback.