Having always been a niche category, country music has never been part of the larger Grammy conversation. Maybe it was the confluence of 808s and hip-hop acts guesting on country records that started the dialogue? But with Parkwood/Columbia’s Beyoncé dropping COWBOY CARTER and the Country Consumption #1 “TEXAS HOLD ’EM,” Post Malone (Mercury/Republic) teaming with Morgan Wallen (Big Loud) for one of the Songs of Summer of ’24 “I Had Some Help,” alongside Shaboozey’s “Tipsy (A Bar Song)” (EMPIRE), the charts certainly got it. Add in Broken Bow’s rapper-turned-country force Jelly Roll’s ubiquity with duets with Eminem on “Somebody Save Me” and Alexandra Kay on “Leave the Light On” from the Twisters soundtrack (Atlantic), not to mention the genius mgk collab on "Lonely Road," evoking both John Denver and Alabama, that ignited The Tonight Show, as well as Jelly's packed Staples Center show, and the conversation grew too loud to ignore.

Right there? Massive disruption from anything remotely traditional Nashville. Then again, when Big Machine’s Dolly Parton makes an album called Rockstar, dueting with Rob Halford, Joan Jett, Steven Tyler and Debbie Harry, maybe all bets are off. It makes for some interesting bedfellows, conversation and, ultimately, nominations.

Country Album remains the most coveted of the four categories. Even in a songwriters’ town, artists desire being recognized for a body of work and all the things that go into creating a longform collection of music that resonates. COWBOY CARTER, Post’s F-1 Trillion, Shaboozey’s Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going and last year’s Album winner Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind (Broken Bow) would all be strong nominations in the category.

If that were to happen, who would get that coveted fifth slot? Interscope/UMG Nashville’s Kacey Musgraves, a perennial Big Four Album of the Year contender, with Deeper Well? Critical-mass favorite Chris Stapleton with Higher (UMG Nashville), featuring the steamy “Think I’m in Love With You,” which seems a lock for Solo Vocal and Song? Maybe it’s Sony Nashville’s Luke Combs with his seasons-of-life collection Fathers & Sons?

Perhaps it’s the more traditional-values, Texas-grounded Cody Johnson’s Leather (Warner Nashville) in the mix, or Big Machine’s dedicated compilation Petty Country, which features Stapleton, Combs, Wilson with Wynonna, George Strait, Steve Earle, Rhiannon Giddens, Willie Nelson, Margo Price and more covering the best of Tom Petty’s catalog. Outliers here would be Grammy favorite Ashley McBryde for The Devil You Know (WMN) or Best New Artist favorite Megan Moroney (Columbia/SMN) with Am I Okay?

That’s a lot. But with New York and Los Angeles now in the country business full tilt, the playing field has gotten crowded. Would that help Shaboozey or Nate Smith (SMN), with his 10-week #1 “World on Fire” also have a shot at New Artist? We’re fixing to find out.

Back in genre, Republic’s Miranda Lambert’s “Wranglers,” the first music from her new home on Vanner/Republic, seems likely to burn its way into Solo Vocal Performance and Song. With “TEXAS HOLD ’EM” and “Tipsy (A Bar Song)” also seeming likely to make the category, plus Grammy catnip Stapleton with the sweltering “Think I’m in Love With You” once again, we’re looking to see who fills out the final slots. Jelly Roll’s “I Am Not Okay” is a powerful cry for help, and he’s musical guest for the kickoff of Saturday Night Live’s 50th season. It would be ironic if Moroney’s “Am I Okay?” was there as well.

Perhaps Warner Records’ upstart Dasha’s breakout “Austin,” which comes into balloting with a lot of momentum, sneaks in. Maybe the Texas Chapter goes long on Parker McCollum’s CMA Song nominee “Burn It Down” (UMG Nashville) for the nomination, or Columbia’s red-dirt firestarter Koe Wetzel’s “High Road.” Smith’s chart-topping “World on Fire,” Wilson’s “Hang Tight Honey” and outlier Bryan with “Pink Skies” could all be factors. Johnson’s “Dirt Cheap” connects with a powerful message about holding what matters close.

On the heritage front, Parton’s prayer-like turn on Petty’s “Southern Accents” is a deserving Solo candidate, while Combs’ Twisters track “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” is tracking. If Nashville’s crazy for Post, perhaps his “Yours” gets that last slot, or maybe Wallen’s powerhouse “Lies Lies Lies” rounds out the category.

Figure anything nominated in a performance category has a shot at Song. That also means prospective Duo/Group nominees—Kelsea Ballerini (Black River) and Noah Kahan’s “Cowboys Cry Too,” breakout Ella Langley with Riley Green on “You Look Like You Love Me,” RCA’s roots outliers The Red Clay Strays’ “Drowning,” Dan + Shay’s acoustic chasing empty dreams “Bigger Houses” (WMN) and Smith with Avril Lavigne’s “Bulletproof”—will have to face off with the Malone/Wallen hammer of “I Had Some Help” and Beyoncé’s take on Sir Paul McCartney’s “BLACKBIIRD” with Tanner Adell, Brittney Spencer, Tiera Kennedy and Reyna Roberts; her duet with Miley Cyrus on “II MOST WANTED”; or her Shaboozey square up on “SWEET*HONEY*BUCKING.”

With so many factions, it makes handicapping tricky. Does streaming impact country categories? Will the old guard/name recognition hold up? Will the beyond-genre names dominate as artists like Bruce Springsteen have in Americana? Hard to say.

But as in politics, so in Grammys. Ultimately, you gotta get out and show out, because whichever faction votes, that’s what’s going to tilt the nominations.

Captions: Clockwise from Top left: Beyoncé, Chris Stapleton, Shaboozey, Kaycey Musgraves, Morgan Wallen, Lainey Wilson

Clockwise from Top left: Jelly Roll, Megan Moroney, Cody Johnson, mgk and Jelly Roll, Luke Combs, Nate Smith, Miranda Lambert, Post Malone, Dan + Shay, Red Clay Strays