It won’t be long before 2023’s Grammy victors will make room on their shelves for their newly won hardware, and in the remaining days before Music’s Biggest Night there will be much speculation about who those winners will be—especially in the Big 4 categories. So we might as well throw our own speculation on the pile.

As we’ve repeatedly emphasized, there’s still a lot of debate about the relative roles of “voting” vs. “choosing” in the results, as Academy insiders are said to leverage considerable influence in the process (much of that transpiring in secret chambers and whatnot). The narrative among insiders is that much power rests with the “New Academy,” a diverse collective of creators whose agendas are very much in evidence in the noms—and will be discernible in the final results.

So: Grammy does what Grammy wants; the New Academy flexes once again; our picks should be taken with the biggest grain of salt imaginable; lather, rinse, repeat.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

In a strong field, this seems to be Beyoncé’s year. Her RENAISSANCE was both a commercial and critical hit, at once danceable and thought-provoking. Harry Styles, who also fired on all cylinders over the last year, might be a frontrunner if the competition weren’t so agenda-loaded. (Speaking of which, there is talk of Mary J. Blige’s lesser-known album getting the award, which would feel like a make-good for her past glories—and an Academy put.) We both think Bey will take the trophy.

Should win (Lenny): Harry
Should win (Simon): Beyoncé
Will win (both): Beyoncé

RECORD OF THE YEAR

It seems the Academy wants to reward Kendrick Lamar for his powerful, challenging work, and ROTY is the place for that—“The Heart Part 5” is a typically compelling example of his verbal dexterity and conceptual fire. That said, Harry Styles’ “As It Was,” a juggernaut of a single, was also a triumph and embodies much of what the category is supposed to celebrate. Either record would be a strong choice, but we’re thinking the momentum is with Kendrick.

Should win (Lenny): Harry
Should win (Simon): Kendrick
Will win (both): Kendrick

SONG OF THE YEAR

That Taylor Swift has never won in this category is the very definition of cognitive dissonance, and after her stunning year, this would be a strong capper. What’s more, her 10-minute reimagining of “All Too Well” (originally co-written with Liz Rose for 2012’s RED) is the work of a creator whose grasp is as great as her reach—sprawling yet tight, ambitious but intimate. It’s time for Tay to be properly recognized as a writer.

Should win (both): Taylor
Will win (both): Taylor

BEST NEW ARTIST

Usually the most intriguing of the Big 4, BNA was under-nominated this time around, which perhaps slightly diminished the importance of the award. The no-brainer pick was Zach Bryan, but he was left off the list. We’re told that insider factions are stumping for at least three of the nominees. Our money’s on Muni Long, a hit songwriter who broke out as an artist and ticks a lot of New Academy boxes.

Shoulda been nominated and won (both): Zach
Will win (both): Muni