CLIVE CALDER'S JIVE
A MERGER LINCHPIN

Will the Federal Trade Commission force BMG to end its relationship with Jive in the U.S. as a condition of its approval? BMG, which owns 20% of Calder's company, would see its combined post-merger marketshare reduced to the low 20s by divesting Jive, which would probably be acceptable to the FTC.

Would that put Calder and Jive in a position to possibly obtain either BMG or EMI's North American distribution to prevent the Big Five from turning into the Big Four, thereby allaying regulatory fears of consolidation? Could a combination of Jive, a financially strapped edel and possibly Virgin—which the EU may want EMI to divest, as they did in the proposed WMG-EMI pairing—satisfy EU/FTC concerns?

EMI's Ken Berry has been vocal about not being willing to get rid of Virgin. In fact, insiders say EMI refusing to unload the label was the deal-breaker in the WMG-EMI merger. Still, EMI has run out of options, and the board may well overrule Ken to make the deal with BMG.

Could Disney's relationship with edel—which distributes their product outside the U.S— come into play? Will Calder be able to put it all together? And does he even want to? With his BMG distribution deal up in June, it would appear he is in prime position to take advantage of the BMG-EMI talks. In effect, it's his move.