OH LORDE, IT'S TIME FOR
GRAMMY PREDICTIONS

Lorde's "Royals" is the front-runner to win Grammys for both Record and Song of the Year. Lorde, 17, would become the youngest winner ever in both of these categories.

The last three newcomers to sweep both Record and Song of the Year in one night (Christopher Cross, Norah Jones and Amy Winehouse) also won as Best New Artist. But Lorde, inexplicably, wasn't even nominated for that award. With Lorde out of contention, New Artist will probably go to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. The Seattle-based duo would become the third hip-hop act to win in that category, following Arrested Development and Lauryn Hill.

With Justin Timberlake's The 20/20 Experience—The Complete Experience shut out of the Album of the Year contest it had been expected to win, Daft Punk's Random Access Memories and Taylor Swift's Red are locked in a tight race. Random Access Memories has a slight edge. It would be the second dance-music album to win. The first was Bee Gees' Saturday Night Fever soundtrack, which won for 1978, when disco was at its peak.

Here's a closer look at the Big Four categories:

Record of the Year

Lorde's "Royals" and Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" are the leading candidates. "Royals" has the classy, adult-alternative sound of Adele's "Rolling in the Deep," which took the award two years ago. "Radioactive" has the broad pop-rock appeal of Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody," which won four years ago.

Pharrell Williams has two chances to win (or lose, as the case may be). He's featured on Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines," which was last year's biggest hit, and on Daft Punk's irresistible disco throwback "Get Lucky." This marks the first time in Grammy history that an artist has had two nominations in this category in the same year.

"Blurred Lines" also features T.I. "Get Lucky" also features Nile Rodgers. (Rodgers doesn't have a featured credit on the single, but the Recording Academy gave him one anyway.)

"Get Lucky" has a reasonably good chance to win, but I'd be surprised if "Blurred Lines" won. The public may not have been fully aware of the record's strong similarity to Marvin Gaye's "Got to Give It Up," but Grammy voters presumably were.

Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven," which echoes The Police's pop-reggae sound, rounds out the category. It may also be docked for being imitative.

Here are two reasons to think Daft Punk has an edge here: The duo is this year's only act to receive nominations for both Album of the Year and Record of the Year. And Daft Punk's album is the only Album of the Year finalist that was nominated for Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical.

Swift won four years ago for Fearless. But Red didn't even win the CMA Award for Album of the Year. (It was nominated, but lost to Blake Shelton's Based on a True Story…) That doesn't mean it can't win here, but it's not an encouraging sign.

If Swift does win here again, she'll become the youngest artist to win two Album of the Year awards. She'll be 24 and one month old on Grammy night. Stevie Wonder was 24 and nine months old in March 1975 when he won his second Album of the Year award for Fulfillingness' First Finale.

Two other finalists, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' The Heist and Kendrick Lamar's good kid, m.A.A.d city, will probably split the hip-hop vote.

The fifth nominee, Sara Bareilles' The Blessed Unrest, was lucky just to be nominated. (That expression is often used in award discussions, but it has rarely been truer.)

Lorde co-wrote "Royals" with Joel Little. Their strongest rival is the break-up ballad "Just Give Me a Reason," which P!nk and Nate Ruess co-wrote with fun. producer Jeff Bhasker.

Many voters will be drawn to "Same Love," a poignant call for marriage equality. It was written by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis and Mary Lambert, who perform it. Two songs that dealt with the AIDS crisis won here: "That's What Friends Are For" and "Streets of Philadelphia."

Also nominated: Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven" (which he co-wrote with Philip Lawrence and Ari Levine) and Katy Perry's inspirational (but cliché-ridden) "Roar" (which she co-wrote with Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee and Henry Walter).

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, nominated in two other Big Four categories, have an edge here. Kendrick Lamar and Ed Sheeran are or were nominated in one other Big Four category. (Sheeran was nominated for Song of the Year last year for "The A Team.")

The other finalists, Kacey Musgraves and James Blake, aren't nominated in any other Big Four categories, which makes them long shots.

Here are quick picks in the album categories in various genres.

Pop: Justin Timberlake's The 20/20 Experience—The Complete Experience over Bruno Mars' Unorthodox Jukebox

Dance/Electronica: Daft Punk's Random Access Memories

Traditional Pop: Michael Buble's To Be Loved over Tony Bennett's Viva Duets. These crooners are the top two recipients in the category's history, with 14 wins between them.

Rock: Queens of the Stone Age's …Like Clockwork. I'm assuming the four veteran acts in the running (all of whom have been recording since 1970 or earlier) will split the votes of older members.

Alternative: Vampire Weekend's Modern Vampires of the City

Urban Contemporary: Rihanna's Unapologetic

R&B: Alicia Keys' Girl on Fire

Rap: Kendrick Lamar's good kid, m.A.A.d city, though any of the finalists could easily win. This is the year's most competitive category.

Country: Taylor Swift's Red

Grein, a veteran Grammyologist, writes for Yahoo Music.